OHA releases new COVID-19 forecast
The Oregon Health Authority held a media briefing today to discuss the COVID-19 vaccine and the new modeling.
The latest COVID-19 model shows a decrease in daily cases. The new report estimates that, as of Jan. 13, our statewide reproductive rate was 0.81. That means that each case of COVID-19 is being spread to less than one other person.
According to the newest forecast, if we continue on our present course of wearing masks, keeping physical distance and restricting our gathering sizes, daily COVID-19 cases will decline to an average of 420 per day, and COVID-19 related hospitalizations will decrease by 13 per day.
A 30% increase in transmission would translate to roughly 720 daily cases and 24 new hospitalizations a day, as well as 240 cases per 100,000 people by mid-February.
The new modeling does not factor in the presence of the UK variant strain of COVID-19 in Oregon.