June 27, 2020
COVID-19 cases are surging in Oregon. How can we all work together to bend the curve back downward?
Today OHA released new modeling that shows a considerable rise in COVID-19 in Oregon. The latest model by OHA and the Institute for Disease Modeling is based on data through June 18. It offers three projections – optimistic, moderate and pessimistic – predicting that daily case levels could rise as much as 20 percentage points. The entire report can be found here.
What we’re learning
Oregonians are at greater risk of becoming infected with COVID-19 than they have been since before Governor Kate Brown issued the first stay-at-home orders. Our latest projections show we are most likely heading toward the worst-case scenario we projected last week – approximately 900 new infections per day by the end of July.
COVID-19 cases have increased each week for four straight weeks statewide, and it is spreading faster in the community. While large workplace outbreaks have driven increased cases in recent weeks, sporadic cases (those with no clear link to another case) account for a growing percentage of new cases.
The severity of illness among new cases of COVID-19 is lower than it was early in the outbreak. Despite the increase in cases in the past four weeks, the number of hospitalizations and deaths remain well below their peaks. Emergency department visits due to symptoms of the disease are still below 1 percent.
More younger people are contracting COVID-19. The median age of people with newly diagnosed COVID-19 infection is declining as more cases are being diagnosed in people younger than 50 years of age.
Oregon’s health care system has not been overtaxed by COVID-19 cases – yet. However, hospital capacity could be overwhelmed this summer if cases continue to surge.
Each of us can take action to slow the spread of COVID-19
Cases will slow – and Oregon will remain open – if we take the safe, simple steps to prevent the virus from spreading. Cases will continue to surge if we ignore health and safety precautions.
Steps you can take:
The bottom line is that COVID-19 is circulating more widely in Oregon. Oregon can stay safe if we all do our part to keep COVID-19 under control. If we don’t, our latest projections tell us we risk letting the virus spread fast across our state.