Sunday, Dec. 21st – Lincoln County
Summary: With so much going on, it’s a long report today, so pour a fresh cup of coffee, sit back and read on. Actually, unless you slept through yesterday, you know what conditions were like so we won’t spend much time on the recap – lotsa rain, blustery sou’westers and warm temps. Central Coast precipitation totals were 3-4 inches and winds gusted 45-55 mph. Coast Range rainfall was 4-6 inches. It was raining this morning with fairly light winds.
Past 24 Hours High/Low/Gust/Rain/Storm Total so far…
Lincoln City: 57F/55F/35mph/1.49”/3.22”
Depoe Bay: 57F/52F/46mph/1.52”/3.21”
Almost lost in the storm shuffle is that Winter begins this afternoon with the solstice at 3:30pm. No gain or loss of daylight today, we get 8 hours and 49 minutes as our ‘shortest day’ of the year. Daylight begins slowly lengthening tomorrow, gaining 2 seconds.
Warnings, Watches, Advisories: As of 8:00am Sunday morning, here are all of the latest active bulletins from the National Weather Service covering the current storm impacting the Central Coast. These notices may be cancelled or updated as the day progresses, so check back often.
The Flood Warning continues for the Alsea River near Tidewater.
* At 9:00am Sunday the stage was 18.9 feet / 21810 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 19500 cfs.
* Forecast: this river was near a crest at 18.9 feet at 3:00am Sunday. This river is expected to fall below flood stage around 1:00pm Sunday and continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact: above 18 feet, expect minor flooding of low-lying pasture land, roads, and a few structures close to the river.
The Flood Warning continues for the Siletz River at Siletz.
* At 3:00am Sunday the stage was 20.0 feet / 28250 cfs.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet and flood flow is 19000 cfs.
* Forecast: this river crested at 20.3 feet at 12:30am Sunday. This river is expected to fall below flood stage around 5:00pm Sunday and continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact: above 20 feet, expect widespread flooding downstream. Increased flooding can be expected in the housing development downstream from Mack Landing. Numerous private roads and a trailer park between Milepost 2.5 and Milepost 5 near Sunset Landing to Coyote Rock are flooded. Flooding may be exacerbated during high tide.
The Flood Warning continues for the Siuslaw River near Mapleton.
* At 3:00am Sunday the stage was 22.8 feet / 33593 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 22400 cfs.
* Forecast: this river was near a crest at 22.8 feet at 3:00am Sunday. This river is expected to fall below flood stage around 4:00am Monday and continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact: above 22 feet, expect widespread flooding of low-lying land. Several homes and structures in low areas of Mapleton start to flood. Numerous rural roads along and near the Siuslaw River will likely be flooded, and water begins to cover the lower sections of Highway 126 at this stage. Flooding may be exacerbated during high tide.
River levels, flood stages and forecasts are available on a real-time map here..
A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 9:00am to 3:00pm today.
* Tides: the observed high tide during the late morning today is expected to reach around 11 feet at Toke Point, Washington and between 10 feet and 11 feet for Astoria and South Beach (Newport), Oregon. With tidal anomalies of around 1.5 feet, this high tide will occur around 11:00am. These values are similar to the tides observed yesterday.
* River Flows: coastal river flows are increasing due to abundant rainfall. With expected additional rainfall, the Willapa, Nehalem, Wilson, Siletz, Alsea and Siuslaw rivers are all expected to be at or near bankfull. Rivers may continue to run near flood flows during the midday Monday high tide.
* Impact: affected locations will include low-lying areas near bays and sloughs, Highway 101, Highway 126 east of Florence and the lower reaches of all coastal rivers. Historically, tides around 11 feet paired with near flood flows on local rivers have resulted in minor tidal overflow near Raymond, Tillamook, Nehalem, Waldport and Depoe Bay. The greatest impacts are likely between 9:00am and 2:00pm on Sunday.
* Precautionary/Preparedness Actions: A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.
The Flood Watch continues for most of Northwest Oregon including the Central Coast.
* In effect through Monday afternoon.
* Rain will continue to fall over Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington through Monday. The rain over Southwest Washington is expected to decrease in intensity early Sunday. Over Northwest Oregon expect rainfall to decrease in intensity during the day Sunday.
* Precautionary/Preparedness Actions: a Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts.
* Landslides and debris flows are possible during this flood event. People, structures and roads located below steep slopes, in canyons and near the mouths of canyons may be at serious risk from rapidly moving landslides.
Forecast: Rainy and breezy today with maybe a half inch of precipitation, winds gusting to 35 mph and the mercury climbing toward 60F. The chance of rain begins diminishing tonight with another tenth of an inch or so, low temps near 50F. Tomorrow, look for a 50-50 chance of some light rain, high 55F, and light winds. Outlook is for a chance of rain Tuesday, but rain likely again Tuesday evening. Highs of 50-55F, lows about 45F.
Christmas Eve/Day… Showers, partial clearing, cooler, low 39F, high 48F. The chance of snow is less than 5%.
Travel: A Flood Watch is in effect for all areas. Highway 101 remains closed 12 miles north of Florence due to hazardous geological conditions; use an alternate route. In the Coast Range today, high water can be expected in some spots, rain with highs of 50-55F. Valley destinations are expecting rain, possible street and highway flooding and 55-60F. The Columbia River Gorge forecast is rain, possible street and highway flooding, temps around 60F. For the Cascades, it is above freezing and wet in the passes this morning, rain today; the snow level is at 5,500 feet. Outlook for weekend travelers is rain with possible street, road and highway flooding through Sunday night at the lower elevations; snow with 1-4 inches of accumulation tonight down to the highway passes in the Cascades. Carry chains or traction tires.
Cascades Snow Pack: NRCS snow pack sensors are still offline due to technical problems.
Ski Report – New Snow/Base/Condition…
Willamette Pass 0”/4”/Closed
Mt. Bachelor 7”/40”/Open, wet packed, weather permitting
Mt. Hood Ski Bowl 1”/16”/Open, Snow Tube & Adventure Park
Mt. Hood Meadows 10”/8”/Closed, may open tomorrow
Timberline 0”/15”/Open, Bruno’s and Pucci weather permitting
Marine: Winds have settled down considerably this morning to SW 15-20 knots, but seas are rough, 13 feet at 15 seconds. As of 8:00am, Depoe Bay bar is closed to all recreational and uninspected passenger vessels. Yaquina Bay bar is closed to all recreational and uninspected passenger vessels 40 feet and less. A Small Craft Advisory for winds is in effect through this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas continues through Monday afternoon. W winds 15-20 knots gusting 25 today, seas 14-16 feet at 14 seconds. Tonight, the breeze eases and veers to westerly 10-15 knots with rough seas holding at 13-14 feet at 13 seconds. A light NE to SE breeze tomorrow, about 10 knots, and seas 12-13 feet at 13 seconds. Outlook is for rising S wind on Tuesday, 20-25 knots, but swells rounding to 11 feet at 18 seconds. Wednesday and Thursday, nor’westers 15-20 knots with swells running 11-13 feet.
On the Beach… Rain, breezy, surf 12-15 feet (moderate).
* The National Weather Service in Portland has cancelled the High Surf Advisory.
* For a safe and enjoyable time on the Central Coast, the Oregon Parks & Recreation Department offers these Beach Safety Tips.
* King Tides
12/21 Sun 10:51 AM 9.92 H
12/21 Sun 05:53 PM -1.24 L
12/22 Mon 12:35 AM 7.59 H
12/22 Mon 05:35 AM 3.24 L
In Short: Rain, moderate winds, then continued wet but cooler.