Sunday, October 19th – Lincoln County
Summary: It was one of those 50-50 days with half Autumn and half Summer conditions yesterday. The mercury rose to the mid-60s in the late afternoon sunshine on the heels of a damp and cloudy morning. Precipitation was generally under a tenth of an inch with Lincoln City recording a bit over that. The rain ended before lunch. A southwest breeze in the morning blew 15-25 mph; though a gust at Yachats topped 30 mph. By early evening, with raincoats back in the mud room, a dazzling sunset closed out our daylight hours. But it didn’t take long for the clouds to return as skies became overcast again just after dark and stayed that way through the night. Some fog and drizzle greeted early risers this morning. Lows were warm; in fact, the Central Coast had the second warmest temperatures in the state at 60F, just below Portland’s 62F.
Past 24 Hours High/Low/Wind Gust/Rain…
Lincoln City: 65F/60F/22mph/0.11”
Depoe Bay: 64F/59F/28mph/0.03”
Forecast: There are already signs of the next storm front approaching from the southwest. As mentioned, whether or not we get much if any clearing today is dependent upon how fast this system comes in. Some of this morning’s low overcast may melt away before the higher clouds associated with the latest weather disturbance cover the sky. So, it’s iffy. High today could be relatively warm, 65-70F, if the Sun breaks through. Otherwise expect 60F, the breeze to building by this afternoon to 20-30 mph gusting 45 and there’s a chance of showers. Windy and rainy tonight, low about 55F. We start the workweek tomorrow with showers, a chance of thunderstorms and cooler, highs around 60F. Outlook is for a little rain Tuesday and then another wet and windy storm Wednesday and Thursday, turning to showers as we head into the weekend.
Winter 2014-15 Outlook…
The Old Farmer’s Almanac (OFA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have issued their Pacific Northwest long-range seasonal predictions for the coming Winter. OFA says temperatures will be higher than normal, with below-average precipitation and fewer storms. The coldest and possibly snowiest periods will be in late December, mid to late January, and again in late February. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is also projecting below-normal precipitation for our area this Winter. However, that could change if an El Niño develops. Forecasters announced on October 9th that the conditions necessary to declare an El Niño event have not yet occurred, so they’ve continued an El Niño Watch with a 67% chance of development by the end of the year. While strong El Niño episodes often pull more moisture into Oregon over the Winter months, this El Niño is expected to be weak, offering little in the way of extra rainfall at lower elevations or a deeper snowpack in the Cascades. The Weather Channel, AccuWeather and other commercial forecasting services are in basic agreement with the OFA and NOAA Winter outlook.
Travel: In the Coast Range today, partly sunny and 65-75F. Valley destinations are expecting partly sunny skies with highs of 70-75F. For the Cascades, mostly sunny; the freezing level is at 12,000 feet. Outlook for weekend travelers is mainly dry pavement today but wet tonight.
Marine: The breeze is light near shore this morning at around 10 knots, but it’s blowing 15-20 knots at the Rockpile with seas 7 feet at 9 seconds. As of 8:00am, Depoe Bay bar is closed to recreational vessels 24 feet and less. Yaquina Bay bar is unrestricted. A Gale Warning is already up for offshore waters out past 10 nautical miles, and goes into effect at 2:00pm for inshore areas. S winds rising to 20-25 knots gusting 35-40 and combined seas building to 12 feet. The breeze eases to 15-20 knots after midnight tonight and through tomorrow morning with rough seas 12-14 feet at 14 seconds. Winds go back up Monday afternoon to 20-25 knots; seas still up around 13 feet. Outlook is for southerlies all week, including another gale possible Tuesday and Wednesday, combined seas remaining 12-14 feet.
On the Beach… Clouds, possible sunbreaks, breezy, surf 6-10 feet (moderate).
* Surf could build to high levels this week.
* For a safe and enjoyable time on the Central Coast, the Oregon Parks & Recreation Department offers these Beach Safety Tips.
10/19 Sun 10:20 AM 7.34 H
10/19 Sun 04:28 PM 2.06 L
10/19 Sun 10:26 PM 6.71 H
10/20 Mon 04:27 AM 1.58 L
In Short: Mostly cloudy, maybe some partial clearing, then rainy and windy.